Putin has clung on – but his fight for power has only just begun

The Russian leader has dodged the immediate threat from the mercenary leader of the Wagner group, but there is likely to be a high price to pay, writes Mary Dejevsky

There is a view that Putin prevailed – but has he? (AP)

It’s over – or is it? After 24 hours of high drama, which involved a 25,000-strong mercenary force mounting what increasingly became a direct challenge to President Putin and an armed convoy that came within 200km of Moscow, all would now appear to be quiet on the Russian front. In so many ways, though, the power dynamic inside Russia, and potentially also in the Russia-Ukraine war, has changed.

The questions now are how deep that change runs, whether it is permanent, and what was the cost to Putin of the eleventh-hour agreement – brokered by Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko – that led to the convoy being turned around and the chief mutineer settling for exile and immunity from prosecution.

The origins of what briefly became an armed rebellion against Russia’s top brass and defence establishment appear to lie in Putin’s recent demand that the Wagner mercenary force sign a formal contract with the Russian armed forces – and so subordinate itself to Russian command. The force, founded and led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, one of Putin’s erstwhile St Petersburg associates, had arguably saved Putin’s bacon by winning the protracted battle for Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine – albeit at great cost – before handing the territory over to troops from Russia’s regular armed forces.